The Gambler's Fallacy

The "gambler’s fallacy” is the belief that the more often something has occurred (ie bad hands in poker), the less likely it is to occur in the future. Poker players often lament that they are “due for aces” or that they “will definitely hit their next flush.” Players who believe in the gambler’s fallacy may be less willing to bet after wins and more willing to bet after losses.

- G.Smith M.Levere R.Kurtzman, Poker Player Behavior After Big Wins and Big Losses

Everyone is different, of course, so no one rule will apply to all opponents. But watch out for changes in play styles for people who win and lose big hands. Some players will loosen while others will tighten depending on what strategy they believe best. If you can observe these changes, it will put you in the driving seat against them when the situation next arises.


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